Carling Cup: Burnley v Spurs

Spurs have lost their zest in recent weeks but I think they’re due a decent performance and I expect them to be fully motivated for this evening’s game against Burnley in what will be an open game with Burnley looking to reduce a 3 goal deficit.

I fully expect Spurs to win this evening and with the pressure slightly off, with a 3 goal cushion, I reckon we’ll see the best of Spurs’ offensive qualities in the space that Burnley will inevitably make available as they press forward.

Another poor performance from Spurs will do nothing for their waning confidence so I cant see any reason to expect anything other than 100% motivation from Harry Redknapp’s side especially with several likely starters desperate to prove themselves.

This game is exactly the type of game I like to get involved in as it’s going to be open and it’s the kind of game I expect the better side, Spurs, to use the space afforded them in which Modric and Bentley could have a field day.

To that end I’ve been scouring the player performance markets, a market I love because of the limited downside, and I think it’s worth buying the performance of Spurs’ two most creative players both eager to make an impact under the Redknapp regime.

Nani was 95 ahead of Man Utd clash with Derby last night so I was surprised to see quotes of almost half that on Modric (58) and Bentley (53).

I’m long of both at £5 per point with Sporting Index.

Preview: US Open Tennis

No one can argue Andy Murray has had a great start to the season and has shown significant improvement over the past 6-12 months but fixed odds quotes as low as 41-20 to win the Australian Open are quite frankly ridiculous when you consider Roger Federer is available at greater odds.

I only get involved in the grand slam events and usually stakes are tempered because my knowlegde of tennis is not as great as other sports such as football, golf and cricket but I really fancy Federer to win this at the available odds, lets look at the stand out evidence.

Roger Federer has won 12 of the last 15 grand slam events played on fast courts, he’s finished runner-up once and he’s been a beaten semi-finalist in the other 2.  He is without doubt the best tennis player of his generation, perhaps all time so why the ginger whinger is available at skinnier odds in Melbourne I find bewildering.

So, in 15 attempts Federer’s worst performance is as a beaten semi-finalist which the spread markets award 20 points on the 60 to the winner outright index.

I’m long of Federer’s outright performance at 30 with Sporting Index for £10 per point.

Premiership: Sunderland v Aston Villa

I love Martin O’Neil.  He’s intelligent and charasmatic and I reckon he will inspire Aston Villa to a Champion’s League birth this season and I cant see any reason to oppose them away to Sunderland this afternoon.

Villa have lost just 4 of their 21 league games this season and only Chelsea have secured more away wins, beating their nearest rivals Everton and Arsenal in the process.  Only Chelsea have scored more goals in the Premiership and readers may be surprised that over half way through the season and Villa have scored more goals than Man Utd and Liverpool.  There are fewer sides I’d prefer to watch and for me Ashley Young has been a revelation.

What I like about O’Neil most, a bit like Moyes, is that he gets average players to perform, players such as Steve Sidwell and Luke Young are little more than average Premiership players but they play with confidence under O’Neil’s stewardship.

Sunderland too are on a decent roll since Keane’s departure and I am usually nervous about taking on sides under new managers.  However Sbragia is now 7 games into his new role and however I expect that impact may begin to fizzle out and speculation surrounding their star player Kenwyn Jone’s departure to Spurs may have an adverse effect on the black cats.  With Malbranque and Gordon, two of their most influential players on the sidelines, I was expecting a 0.4-0.6 ‘ish quote about Villa over Sunderland so I am licking my lips at the 0.2 on offer by Spreadex.  I also like the fact that Sunderland have climbed out of the relagation zone therefore their motivation may have waned a little.

I’ve bought Villa for £200 per goal at 0.2 with Spreadex.

Buying Goals? Cover 0-0 on Betfair.

If you’re a regular buyer of total goals in football matches, do yourself a favour and cover your maximum liability by backing the goalless draw on the exchanges.  I’ve always liked the shape of the correct score markets on the exchanges and 0-0 is often available at at >40% greater odds than available with the big 3 high street bookies.  Lets examine this weekends premiership fixture between Chelsea and Stoke.

Let’s say you’re a buyer of goals, a pertinent example given Stoke’s propensity to ‘park the bus’ in front of goal.  Anyway, the 0-0 draw is available on the high street at average odds of 13ish whereas you can back the 0-0 on Betfair or Betdaq at around 19.0.  Incredibly that affords punters a greater than 50% price differential backing the 0-0 on the exchanges as opposed to backing the 0-0 with Ladbrokes, Hills or Corals.

Let’s face it Stoke are not going to beat Chelsea this afternoon (they’re just not, alright!) and are unlikely to score, therefore the worst case scenario as a buyer of goals is a goalless draw so it makes sense to have a small cover of the 0-0.

Premiership: Stoke v Liverpool

Stoke have won 1 of their last 8 games culminating in a 2-0 reverse against Hartlepool in the FA Cup last week and I expect them to get tanked at home to Liverpool today.

I think it is fair to say that Stoke are the worst side in the Premiership and will finish bottom of the league, the good start made to the season is beginning to unravel and the pressure is beginning to notch up a gear as was evident by the stand off between Griffin and Fuller against West Ham, their star player misses today’s game as a result.  To achieve a goalless draw at Anfield was a lesson in ante football and how they managed to resist 25 goals on target no one knows.

Liverpool are without the influential Xabi Alonso but Mascherano is fit enough to play and Torres returns to the starting line up and I expect the reds to avenge the frustration at having been kept at bay at Anfield.

As I’ve mentioned a few times before I think Liverpool are the real deal this season, they’re playing brilliantly, their manager is clearly fully revved up and a win today will secure a 6 point break at the top of the Premiership.  I expect Steven Gerrard to overcome his recent problems to drive Liverpool to new heights and capture the Premiership for the first time this season.

Conversely Stoke are on the downgrade, I think most Premiership teams have wised up to their ugly tactics and I think they’ll struggle to impose themselves against a classy Liverpool side that can mix it, physically, with any side.  If Liverpool can grab a first half lead they could take Stoke apart as they did against Newcastle.  Given Stoke’s propensity to play for goalless draws I may consider a small cover of the 0-0 at 13.0 on Betfair but I really dont think Liverpool will have any problems this afternoon and a general quote of 1.3-1.5 represents very little downside as far as I am concerned.

I’m with Liverpool for £200 per point at 1.5 with Spreadex.

Carling Cup Semi Final: Derby v Man Utd

Man Utd away to Derby in the Carling Cup semi-final is the kind of trade I’d usually be long of but recent events at Pride Park have countered my view of this game.

I think Nigel Clough’s appointment as manager could really drive Derby to new heights, at least in their recent history. Okay, I am accepting that he has had little time to effect the team’s on field tactics but I never under estimate the impact a new, permanent manager has on a struggling side.

My theory doesnt always apply however, it is reserved for managers that I think are charasmatic and respected and possess qualities that are going to inspire and motivate a side struggling for form and confidence, I think Clough has those qualities. He’s bred for the job after all.

Recent examples where I have profited include Harry Redknapp at Spurs and currently Sam Allardyce at Bolton. I guess you could cite Roy Hodgson and the positive effect he has had on Fulham, however I think Hodgson has about as much charisma as my kettle and as such his impact has been more profound in the long term; perhaps a manager that seeks result in the softly, softly style not befitting the management traits of Redknapp and Allardyce. For me, both managers are reliant on constantly invigorating their squads with new players as a means to ongoing motivation and ultimately positive results. I dont think either of them are particularly astute tactics-wise.

I rate Paul Jewell too, he’s a proven manager, particularly at Championship level but he inherited a poor squad and it seems despite his best efforts there has been discord in the Derby squad for sometime now. Similarly, I sense a little unease in the Man Utd squad too, what with Ronaldo no where near the form of last season, Tevez speaking out in the media this week about his perceived mis-treatment and Berbatov being so unpredictable and I question the impact he may have on a side founded on team spirit, they say he undid Spurs.

So, I wont be backing Man Utd but I have had a small £5 buy of Derby’s match performance at 22 as I expect Derby to really challenge this evening bouyed by the hope of a fresh, new manager called Nigel Clough.

SPL: Inverness v Rangers

You have to be mad or foolish to bet on the outcome of Scottish football matches but I simply can not pass up the opportunity of backing Rangers away to Inverness Caledonian Thistle today.

Rangers have had a poor season but they simply must win today to close the gap on Celtic to 5 points following their capitulation at home to Dundee Utd yesterday.  It must be hard for Rangers and Celtic to motivate themselves playing against such mediocre teams but there is no way Smith will accept anything other than a comfortable victory this afternoon.  Rangers are capable of hammering sides as they’ve proven against Inverness (5-0) at home on Nov 1 and more recently away to Kilmarnock (4-0) and at home to Hamilton (7-1).

No side has conceded more goals than Inverness in the SPL this season and Rangers have scored almost three times as many goals away than Inverness have scored at home.  I’m a regular backer of fancied sides away from home as I consider the home side are more likely to push forward than they would if the game were being played at Ibrox or Celtic Park.

Inverness sit at the foot of the SPL having lost their last 5 games and won just one of their 10 home games this season.  If they concede an early goal it could be a landslide.  The possibility of Inverness scrapping and scraping a draw makes me consider a smal cover of the 0-0 at 16.5 on Betfair however I think the likelyhood of a 3+ goal margin of victory for Rangers is far greater than an Inverness draw/victory and I’m comfortable taking the 1.5 quote which is widely available.

I’m long of Rangers at £200 per goal at 1.5 with Spreadex.

FA Cup: Everton v Macclesfield

The FA Cup first round proper and my missus is out for the afternoon, could life get much sweeter.

I think Liverpool will win the FA Cup but I’ll be backing the blue half of Liverpool this weekend when Everton travel the 40 odd miles to take on lowly Macclesfield.

The first consideration when backing sides in cup games is to evaluate if the side you fancy are fully motivated.  Everton are a side I believe will be 100% up for it for several reasons.  Not least, Everton are out of the UEFA Cup and the Carling Cup and the best they can hope for in the Premiership is 5th so I expect a decent FA Cup run starting by spanking weak League Two outfit Macclesfield.

What better motivation will Moyes need other than to remind his players of their embarrassing exit at the hands of Oldham at this stage last year.

I really admire David Moyes although I reckon he’s a bit of a nutcase.  My mate, who’s a Preston fan, once told me that he got involved in a fight during Preston’s Christmas party which isnt totally unbelievable asides from the fact that the fight was with one of his own players.  He’s got that look in his eyes that tells you any player not giving 100% to the cause is going to get an almighty rocket.  Moyes’ players seem to fulfill a blue-print; Cahill,Neville, Osman, Jagielka, Lescott, Pinnaer could all be described as average players that punch above their weight physically and make the absolute most of their limited ability.  If I were a Premiership footballer I wouldnt relish playing against Everton at the moment.

Following an indifferent start to the season Moyes has motivated his side to 6th in the Premiership despite having to field a weakened side most weeks because of injuries, they’ve won 7 of their last 10 away games and havent conceded a goal now for 360 minutes.

Conversely, Macclesfield are a poor side, no side in league two has conceded more goals (>2 per game) and although Macclesfield will probably be saved from relegation this year because of the docking of points to their rivals Luton and Bournemouth they’re unlikely to reach the 5th round for the first time in their 135 year existence.

In my eyes Everton are a rock steady buy despite a quote of 1.4-1.6 and I’m long for £200 per goal.

3rd Test: Australia v South Africa

There were empty seats at the MCG as South Africa sealed Australia’s first defeat on home soil for 16 years.

I would’nt usually get involved in a dead rubber but I just cant understand why South Africa are not favourites to beat Australia in the third and final test at the Sydney Cricket Ground.  Sporting Index and Spreadex make the Aussies 11-12.5 on the Match Result Index which awards 25 to the winner and 10 for a draw and I’m hoping to get 2009, and this blog, off to a winning start by selling Australia.

Unlike most Englishmen, I actually like Graeme Smith.  To notch two huge double centuries in back to back tests at the age of 22 in his first test series as captain is an unbelievable feat and if he was an Englishman we’d still be going on about it now.

Now, almost 6 years on Smith stands on the brink of greatness as a win against Australia in the final test will officially propel South Africa to the world’s number one test side.  A position Australia have occuplied for all but 8 months of the past 13 years.

There are further reasons to oppose the home side, not least injuries to key players Brett Lee and Andrew Symonds.  Some questions Lee’s contribution but surely his sunny disposition and positive outlook are going to be sorely missed and I think its a huge ask to expect an under pressure Ponting to rouse a bunch of inexperienced players to victory here.  Fair play to Ponting though to score 101 and 99 in the second test but he can’t carry the fight by himself and I expect Australia to be under a different captain when the first Ashes test kicks off in Cardiff on July 8.

My stakes are tempered slightly by the fact that no matter how you look at it, the result of this test will not change the result of the series and I am speculating that the attitude of the South Africans will be spot on and we won’t see a repeat of their defeat to England in the final test of the series back in the summer.  Rather than buy SA at 12.5 I’ve sold Australia at 11 for £20 per point.

Preview: FA Cup 2008/9

Go long about Liverpool to win the FA Cup at 37 on the outright index which awards 100 points to the winners.

I love everything about the FA Cup but for me it completely lost its fizz last season with the top 4 conspicuous by their absence in the latter stages.  I cant see a repeat this year and if you discount last years fiasco, 14 of the 15 preceding FA Cups have been won by Arsenal (5), Man Utd (4), Chelsea (3) and Liverpool (2).

Infact, since the inception of the Premiership back in 1992/3, 21 of the 32 finalists have comprised the big four.  So, if you’re realistic about finding the winner of this year’s FA Cup dont look beyond the big four.

Some big guns, including Gerrard, will probably be rested against Preston in the first round but I fully expect Liverpool to negotiate this tricky away tie and go on and win this years trophy.

Liverpool are the team of the season so far.  They’ve played 30 competitive games and lost just twice, against Spurs.  They relinquished a 1-0 lead and got nailed by a 90th minute winner during the fervour that surrounded Harry’s first few games in charge and then a few days later they lost to Spurs again having fielded a side containing fringe players such as Cavalieri, Degen, Plessis, El Zhar and Ngog.

Make no mistake, Liverpool are the real deal this season and in tight matches there is no manager I would want in my corner more than Rafa Benitez.  It amazes me that some Liverpool fans have questioned his position despite two recent Champions League Final appearances.  What amazes me more is the fact that no one in the media ever points out his likeness to Max from Max & Paddy.

Anyway, Liverpool go into 2009 at the Premiership’s summit having beaten Man Utd at home and Chelsea away and were by far the better side when they were held to a draw by Arsenal at the Emirates recently.  They were fantastic in their 5-1 drubbing of Newcastle at the weekend and they’ve been grinding out results without two of their most influential players Mascherano and Torres.

Sporting and Spreadex offer a 100-70-50-33-20-10-0 FA cup Index and Sporting go 34-37 Liverpool.

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